The price path and the timing of calls
The “D House · D Senate” price crossed 80 cents at 08:30, 90 cents at 10:03, and 99 cents at 11:02. Just after polls closed at 09:00, it pulled back from 86 cents at 08:53 to 78 cents at 09:25 before rising again. The D House contract moved from 93.4 cents at 07:00 to 99.9 cents; the D Senate contract from 74 cents to 99.9 cents. The pre-count value recorded in #35 (11/3, 11:08) was 74.5 cents for “D House · D Senate.”
Kalshi congressional-control contracts · 1-minute trades (cents) · 07:00–14:04 · Dashed lines: poll close times · ◆: individual AP Senate calls
Source data
| Time | D House · D Senate | D House · R Senate | R House · R Senate | R House · D Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | 72 | 22 | 6.7 | 0.6 |
| 08:00 | 74 | 22 | 6.9 | 0.5 |
| 09:00 | 86 | 10 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 09:30 | 78 | 15 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 10:00 | 88 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 10:30 | 97.1 | 2.3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 11:00 | 98.4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 12:00 | 99.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 13:00 | 99.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 14:00 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 14:04 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Reading · House: the D House contract crossed 99 cents at 10:19, and the AP call was at 15:27, a gap of 5.1 hours. Senate: the D Senate contract crossed 99 cents at 11:03, and the AP call was at 13:35, a gap of 2.5 hours. We describe how far prices led the calls only through these time gaps.
Early prices also swung sharply in both directions in individual races. In South Carolina, Annie Andrews (D) fell to 27 cents at 09:19 before ending with an AP call at 12:39. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn (I) rose to 75 cents at 10:35 before falling to 0.2 cents at 15:44, before an AP call. Prices just after polls close reflect which ballots were counted first, not the state's final result.
AP call log
- Georgia — AP call, winner Jon Ossoff (D) AP article
- New Hampshire — AP call, winner Chris Pappas (D) AP article
- North Carolina — AP call, winner Roy Cooper (D) AP article
- Florida (special election) — AP call, winner Ashley Moody (R) AP article
- Kentucky — AP call, winner Andy Barr (R) AP article
- South Carolina — AP call, winner Annie Andrews (D) AP article
Show the other 6 AP calls
- Texas — AP call, winner James Talarico (D)
- Ohio (special election) — AP call, winner Sherrod Brown (D)
- Kansas — AP call, winner Adam Hamilton (D)
- Iowa — AP call, winner Josh Turek (D)
- Maine — AP call, winner Troy Jackson (D)
- Michigan — AP call, winner Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- House majority — AP call (Democratic) AP article publication time; a separately stated AP call time was not found AP article
- Senate majority — called by AP (Democratic) Iowa race call that completed a majority in the tally of AP's individual race calls AP article
Asian markets during the count
The KOSPI opened at 5,786.13, rose to 5,828.13 early in the session, and fell as low as 5,421.72 (Korea Exchange (KRX)). That is a −7.0% change from high to low. In the 1-minute path, the high was around 09:12 and the low around 12:45. USD/KRW fell from KRW 1,344.0 at 07:00 to KRW 1,336.0 at 11:48, a relatively small move toward a stronger won. U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose 0.19%, indicating lower yields.
Change (%) · 1-minute data · Delayed live series · Baselines below each panel
Source data
| High (time) | Low (time) | Latest live quote (15:00) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | +3.13%(09:12) | −3.99%(12:45) | +0.24% |
| KOSDAQ | +1.89%(09:03) | −2.94%(12:08) | +1.31% |
| Samsung Electronics | +3.87%(09:03) | −5.01%(12:45) | −1.25% |
| SK hynix | +5.44%(09:03) | −6.76%(12:48) | −0.36% |
| USD/KRW | +0.19%(09:09) | −0.61%(11:48) | −0.23% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +0.25%(08:26) | −2.77%(12:08) | −0.76% |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury futures | +0.47%(11:26) | −0.03%(08:14) | +0.19% |
The afternoon recovery overlapped with a series of individual AP Senate calls (13:03–13:35, 4 races). By then, “D House · D Senate” was already around 99.7 cents and barely moved. This records events at the same time, not a cause. 5-minute co-movement (Section 04) measures only intervals when the congressional price moved, so it captures little of this period.
Some reports linked the intraday path to emerging election results and concerns over AI data-center regulation (The Financial News' afternoon report). Boboo from Sky's 5-minute record and poll close response table can neither confirm nor reject that link.
Reading · Samsung Electronics (−0.68%) and SK hynix (−0.14%) moved in the same direction and lagged the index (+0.62%). The gap between the average of the two companies and the index was −1.0 percentage points. KOSDAQ was +1.50% (Q6).
What moved in the same 30-minute window at each poll close
| Close | D Senate (cents) | D House (cents) | Nasdaq futures | USD/KRW | KOSPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | +6.0 | +2.4 | — | +0.06% | — |
| 09:00 | −9.0 | −0.2 | — | +0.00% | — |
| 09:30 | +12.1 | +0.8 | −0.10% | +0.10% | −0.64% |
| 10:00 | +7.0 | +1.5 | −1.11% | −0.45% | −2.42% |
| 10:30 | +1.9 | +0.6 | −0.33% | −0.26% | −1.27% |
| 11:00 | +1.2 | +0.3 | −0.35% | −0.01% | −1.24% |
| 12:00 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.08% | −0.05% | −0.04% |
| 13:00 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.18% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
| 14:00 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.74% | −0.01% | +1.36% |
| 15:00 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.07% | +0.07% | — |
Changes from 5 minutes before to 30 minutes after polls close (live response table). States closing are the same as the dashed lines in Section 01. These are changes in the same window, not causes. “—” means no value was available for that window (before the market opened or because of delays).
The 11/4 KOSPI close came after both chambers were called, but it does not yet include the reaction of the U.S. cash market. AP's calls for the Senate (13:35) and the House (15:27) both came before the 15:30 close. The first close after the U.S. cash market has reacted is 11/5 (Thu). In 2022, the session during counting was +1.06%; the next session was −0.91%.
What is settled and what remains
What has been called and what remains — AP, as of 17:10 KST
| Item · next date | Status |
|---|---|
| House majority— | AP call at 15:27 |
| Senate majority— | AP call at 13:35 |
| 9 competitive Senate racesAlaska: Nov 18 | AP calls in 7 races · 2 uncalled (Nebraska, Alaska) |
| 2 Georgia Public Service Commission seatsRunoff 12/1 if needed | AP result not found |
| 34 local data-center measures#37 | Count not checked |
Show all 9 competitive Senate races
| Week | candidate finding | Prices: 07:00 → 14:04 | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews (D) · Darline Graham (R) | 30 → 99.8 / 70 → 0.2 | Called at 12:39 |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown (D) · Jon Husted (R) | 73 → 99.8 / 30 → 0.1 | Called at 13:10 |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) · Ken Paxton (R) | 75 → 99.7 / 27 → 0.1 | Called at 13:03 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) · Susan Collins (R) | 69 → 99.9 / 32 → 0.1 | Called at 15:02 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) · Mike Rogers (R) | 76 → 99.9 / 25 → 0.1 | Called at 16:27 |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton (D) · Roger Marshall (R) | 65 → 99.9 / 36 → 0.1 | Called at 13:24 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek (D) · Ashley Hinson (R) | 51 → 99.9 / 50 → 0.1 | Called at 13:35 |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) · Pete Ricketts (R) | 28 → 0.2 / 72 → 99.7 | Uncalled by AP · Called by some outlets |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) · Dan Sullivan (R) | 69 → 86 / 32 → 13 | Not called |
Called only by some outlets: Nebraska (not an AP call). Prices are Kalshi cents in the order of the first candidate / second candidate. The candidate order matches the live page, with the Democrat or independent first. Prices before polls close are not the state's result.
Alaska · Domestic mail arriving through 11/13 is counted. If no candidate wins a majority, the ranked-choice count takes place on 11/18; the certification target is 11/25 (report quoting an election official).
Maine · AP called the race for Troy Jackson (D) at 15:02, so a ranked-choice tally is not needed.
Georgia · AP has called the Senate race, so there is no runoff. AP results for the two Public Service Commission seats (Districts 3 and 5) could not be found as of this edition. If no candidate wins a majority, the runoff is on 12/1.
The lens' first picture — 5-minute co-movement [provisional, not preregistered]
The planned comparison (C1 and C2 in Directive M) is not included in this edition. No output from the 12:00 round (C1) had been confirmed as of this edition. C2, covering the full 08:00–18:00 counting window, closes at 18:00. This edition's lens uses only the co-movement measure calculated every 5 minutes on the live page.
For each 10-cent change in “D House · D Senate” over 5 minutes, Nasdaq 100 futures movedProvisional · Not preregistered
Dot = mean −0.09% · Bar = 90% range −0.36%–+0.18% · 71 5-minute pairs (08:10–14:00) · The range widely includes 0
Reading · Dividing across whole-day levels gives about −0.3% per 10 cents. But this attributes everything else happening at the same time to the price. Narrowing the window to 5-minute changes reduces that illusion, leaving a value near 0.
This is co-movement at the same time, not a cause. The original rule (preregistration v2) gives “indeterminate,” because v2 was frozen before completion. A comparison closer to a judgment will follow after the first U.S. session in #37 (C3, 11/5 09:00).
The next 24 hours
- Election lens C2 round — the full 08:00–18:00 counting window
- Naver Blog No.13 (the blog version of this edition)
- U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
- U.S. regular session opens — the first U.S. session after counting
- U.S. market close
- Election lens C3 round — incorporating U.S. closes
- #37: the first U.S. session after the result (lens C3) — blog edition at 11:30
- KOSPI — the first close incorporating the U.S. response
- U.S. employment report (October)
Show 5 later dates
- End of live “1 week after the result” observations
- Alaska domestic-mail arrival deadline · Estimated end of Maine ranked-choice counting (reporting)
- Alaska ranked-choice count (races without a majority)
- Alaska certification target
- Georgia runoff if no candidate wins a majority
From today, the live page continues in “1 week after the result” mode through 11/12.
The fog does not lift all at once. Boboo does not say who will win. As each path emerges, Boboo records when it became visible and where prices stood then.