This week, the trees shook wildly. One day +4.4%, the next −5.7%.
But rise in a hot-air balloon, and the river's direction barely changed.
Following the paths of money, we look down on today's forest.
| Date | Close | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 7/16 (Thu) | 6,820.60 | −6.4%, broke down again |
| 7/20 (Mon) | 6,516.27 | Gap down as holiday moves caught up |
| 7/21 (Tue) | 6,747.95 | Rebound |
| 7/22 (Wed) | 6,797.70 | Near flat |
| 7/23 (Thu) | 7,096.89 | +4.4% Alphabet rally · Foreign investors +KRW 5tn in 4 days |
| 7/24 (Fri) | 6,690.62 | −5.7%, sell-side sidecar |
| 7/27 (Mon) | 6,755.75 | Intraday 6,557 → V-shaped rebound (+0.97%) |
| Date | Brent ($) |
|---|---|
| 7/19 | 88.1 |
| 7/20 | 88.9 |
| 7/21 | 91.4 |
| 7/22 | 93.9 |
| 7/23 | 100.6 |
| 7/24 | 98.4 |
| 7/26 | 96.8 |
| 7/27 | 89.2 |
When oil rises, "the Fed might hike" → stocks and gold fall. When oil falls, a relief rally follows. War news now reaches share prices only through the inflation → interest-rate channel. Ceasefire reports were therefore digested not as a peace rally, but as an interest-rate rally.
Doubts over demand → funding → efficiency (Kimi K3) → now competition (China's CXMT listing +500%). Yet actual memory prices were still +168.5% year on year in June; through the entire crash, DDR5 spot prices never fell for even one day. This week's SK hynix and Samsung earnings provide the first judgment.
Repeated news makes prices move faster. The premium built up to $139 in the opening war panic was erased on the third ceasefire attempt by the headline alone, in a day. Next week's Red Sea observations — whether ships actually sail — will tell us whether it is real.
The won strengthened through rallies, crashes, and ceasefires. That is not a bet on one scenario, but structure: a reversal in foreign flows + policy (pension-fund FX hedging) + spillover benefits from a weak yen. The next thresholds are 1,450 and the early-August balance of payments.
Crypto, the canary in the coal mine, turned up after 21 months. Today, as foreign investors sold KRW 2.9tn, retail investors and institutions absorbed it for the first time. New catalysts appeared too: NVDA → Naver $1bn and a Korea–US $950bn AI partnership. On the other side are the CXMT competition narrative, continued foreign selling, and depleted deposits. From last week's "no bottom signal," we have moved just one step to "pieces exist, but are not assembled".
| Sector | Foreign investors (KRW 100m) | Institutions (KRW 100m) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power ecosystem | +657 | +218 | HD Hyundai Electric, Hyosung Heavy Industries, LS, KEPCO — both sides buying |
| Value stocks | +1,142 | −470 | Shinsegae, POSCO, LG Electronics, Hyundai Steel — 3rd week of foreign buying |
| Platforms | −629 | +2,289 | Institutions concentrated buying in Naver → just before the NVDA announcement |
| Sector | Change |
|---|---|
| Mining | +2.27% |
| Shipbuilding | +1.63% |
| Machinery | +1.57% |
| Banks | +1.43% |
| Food | −1.09% |
| Real estate | −1.39% |
| Retail | −2.10% |
| Stock | July return |
|---|---|
| TEPCO | +12.0% |
| Bandai Namco | +8.6% |
| Kyushu Electric Power | +8.5% |
| Sony | +3.9% |
| Kansai Electric Power | +3.5% |
| Nomura Real Estate | +1.4% |
| Nikkei 225 | −7.8% |
But this whole picture hinges on Thursday and Friday's BOJ meeting. A hawkish surprise or FX intervention would unwind the entire weak-yen trade (mining, shipbuilding, exporters), benefiting depressed domestic-demand and property stocks. Some money that left Japan has already reached Korean government bonds — when the yen turns, that bridge shakes too.