The first U.S. session — what moved, and how far
Even within the same industry, gains and losses split. REITs that lease data-center land and buildings (DLR, EQIX) averaged +3.24%, while the four stocks supplying their power and equipment fell −10.68%. The 3 cloud companies averaged +5.33%, the semiconductor ETF fell −2.75%, and memory maker Micron fell −7.00%.
11/3 → 11/4 closing change (%) · Baskets are simple averages · Hatching = control (chosen in advance as a comparison distant from the election) · Gold, silver and Bitcoin: 11/4 06:00 → 11/5 06:00 KST
Source data
| Stock | 11/3 | 11/4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500 ^GSPC | 7,568.92 | 7,688.62 | +1.58% |
| Nasdaq 100 ^NDX | 28,180.26 | 28,437.17 | +0.91% |
| Russell 2000 ^RUT | 2,812.45 | 2,856.96 | +1.58% |
| Dow ^DJI | 51,786.72 | 53,356.12 | +3.03% |
| Retail ETF XRT | 88.80 | 93.72 | +5.54% |
| Microsoft MSFT | 520.99 | 555.80 | +6.68% |
| Amazon AMZN | 250.69 | 266.03 | +6.12% |
| Alphabet GOOGL | 280.03 | 288.93 | +3.18% |
| Meta META | 621.03 | 630.00 | +1.44% |
| Apple AAPL | 331.90 | 349.51 | +5.31% |
| Oracle ORCL | 126.19 | 123.73 | −1.95% |
| NVIDIA NVDA | 206.69 | 200.13 | −3.17% |
| Broadcom AVGO | 332.13 | 325.48 | −2.00% |
| AMD AMD | 483.90 | 488.78 | +1.01% |
| Micron MU | 855.10 | 795.23 | −7.00% |
| Semiconductor ETF SMH | 518.52 | 504.27 | −2.75% |
| Vistra VST | 139.59 | 120.29 | −13.83% |
| Constellation CEG | 263.40 | 245.72 | −6.71% |
| GE Vernova GEV | 918.20 | 832.83 | −9.30% |
| Vertiv VRT | 235.97 | 205.55 | −12.89% |
| Eaton ETN | 391.70 | 353.08 | −9.86% |
| CoreWeave CRWV | 53.74 | 48.42 | −9.90% |
| Digital Realty DLR | 180.25 | 184.88 | +2.57% |
| Equinix EQIX | 1,014.40 | 1,054.09 | +3.91% |
| Defense ETF ITA | 216.17 | 212.84 | −1.54% |
| Lockheed Martin LMT | 639.00 | 595.04 | −6.88% |
| Northrop Grumman NOC | 550.30 | 525.35 | −4.53% |
| RTX RTX | 203.82 | 198.43 | −2.64% |
| Regional-bank ETF KRE | 72.88 | 74.13 | +1.72% |
| Clean-energy ETF ICLN | 16.11 | 16.60 | +3.04% |
| Solar ETF TAN | 43.34 | 45.79 | +5.65% |
| First Solar FSLR | 185.90 | 194.51 | +4.63% |
| Korea ETF EWY | 155.06 | 152.12 | −1.90% |
| Gold ETF GLD | 359.26 | 372.49 | +3.68% |
| Long-term Treasury ETF TLT | 81.11 | 81.76 | +0.80% |
| Coinbase COIN | 145.45 | 151.50 | +4.16% |
Many assets reversed direction on the first day compared with the 5 trading days before the results. Silver (−8.83%), gold (−3.48%), Bitcoin (−3.60%) and the 3 cloud companies (−5.18%), which had fallen before the results, rose on the first day. The four AI power and equipment stocks (+3.15%) and defense ETF (+4.82%), which had risen, fell. The semiconductor ETF (−7.07%), Micron (−7.93%), Korea ETF, oil, dollar and yields moved further in their earlier direction. Some moves fit the reading that “directions deferred until the results began to take shape”; others do not.
5 trading days before the results versus the first day after — reversals and continuationsOne day
| 5 days before results | First day after results | |
|---|---|---|
| Reversed upward | ||
| Silver futures1-hour bars | −8.83% | +5.26% |
| Gold futures | −3.48% | +3.62% |
| Bitcoin | −3.60% | +2.93% |
| Ethereum1-hour bars | −2.27% | +5.59% |
| 3 cloud firmsMS·AMZN·GOOGL | −5.18% | +5.33% |
| S&P500 | −1.99% | +1.58% |
| Nasdaq 100 | −4.96% | +0.91% |
| Reversed downward | ||
| AI power / equip. 4VST·CEG·GEV·VRT | +3.15% | −10.68% |
| Defense ETFITA | +4.82% | −1.54% |
| VIXpoints | +3.31 points | −4.08 points |
| Further in the same direction | ||
| Semiconductor ETFSMH | −7.07% | −2.75% |
| Micron MU | −7.93% | −7.00% |
| Korea ETFEWY | −1.52% | −1.90% |
| WTISettlement | −3.65% | −8.29% |
| Dollar index | −0.51% | −0.34% |
| U.S. 10-year yield | −4.1bp | −5.8bp |
Before results = 10/27 → 11/3 close (U.S.); 24-hour assets use 10/28 06:00 → 11/4 06:00 KST (1-hour bars). After results = the same values as the bars above. One day cannot establish a change in trend.
Trading volume broadly fit the reading that investors waited, then moved. Election-day (11/3) volume in Microsoft, Micron, the gold ETF and the Korea ETF was the lowest of the 5 trading days before the results. On the first day after, volume relative to the prior 5-day average was 3.83x for Vistra, 1.92x for the retail ETF, 1.60x for Microsoft and 1.36x for the semiconductor ETF. The Korea ETF (0.96x) and Coinbase (0.80x) instead traded less. The 5 days before the results also included a day of heavy trading (10/30), making it hard to distinguish a fall-then-rise pattern from volume alone (Yahoo daily bars; stocks and ETFs only).
Reading · The four AI power and equipment stocks were already down an average −9.15% in the first 5-minute bar after the open (86% of their closing decline). This means the news was out before the U.S. open. Section 04 lists what it was.
Marks set in advance and what happened [not a verdict]
Result under the original rules (preregistration v2): Not assessable. v2 was frozen incomplete on 11/2 at 13:03 KST. The two records below compare what happened with marks set in advance; they are not verdicts.
Election Lens C3 · It ran on 11/5 at 09:12 without a stop. Under the original rules, all six primary rows are “not assessable.” In the auxiliary comparison (provisional, not preregistered), five rows are “insufficient.” The starting conditional value—the final value from the 11/4 12:00 C1 round—is missing. Only the KOSPI shows a “provisional mismatch.” Its prior sensitivity recorded on 11/2 (+3.36) and overnight sensitivity on 11/4 (−0.43) had opposite signs. Missing fields will not be filled later.
The precedent table in the same lens shows VIX 19.91 → 16.36 and VIX9D−VIX +1.71 → −0.82 on the day after the 2018 election. In 2022, VIX was 25.54 → 26.09. The 2026 pattern (T1) is closer to 2018.
Eight tests written in advance — recorded 11/4 at 20:50 KST and frozen before the U.S. openNot a verdict
| Test | Criteria set in advance | 11/4 actual | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 Uncertainty premium | VIX below 11/3; VIX9D−VIX does not widen → R1 | VIX 20.83 → 16.75 · VIX9D−VIX +1.13 → −1.29 | R1 confirmation response |
| T2 Breadth | Russell 2000 ≥ Nasdaq 100 → R1; lags by more than 1.0pp → R2 | +1.58% vs +0.91% (gap +0.67pp) | R1 confirmation response |
| T3 AI regulation narrative | 6-stock basket − SMH: within ±1.0pp → R1; below −1.0pp → R2 | −6.04% − (−2.75%) = −3.29%p | R2 the outcome itself |
| T4 11/2 provisional conditions | ITA about −2.4% (90%: −5.5~+0.8); 10-year about −13bp (−30~+4): within range, same direction → R2 | ITA −1.54%; 10-year −5.8bp — both within range, same direction · 11/2 provisional estimate; authoritative C3: insufficient | Insufficient Overlapping events (Section 04) |
| T5 Gold | U.S. close > 4,058.4 (11/4 18:27 high)? Opposite to the dollar index? | 06:00: 4,073.6 (+3.62% from 11/4 06:00); dollar index −0.35% — above, opposite | No directional criterion |
| T6 Crypto | Bitcoin–Nasdaq 100 correlation over 5-minute returns in the U.S. regular session: daytime link persists → R1 | 0.56 (78 pairs); daytime 08:00~15:30: 0.56 (89 pairs) | Persists; no numeric threshold |
| T7 Korea’s first hour | Opening gap within Nasdaq 100 change after 15:29 × 1.4~2.3 → R1 | Gap −1.82%; band +1.64%~+2.69% | Outside band |
| T8 Refunding window | 22:25~23:00: percentile of move size in 10-year Treasury futures and dollar index | 10-year Treasury futures +0.059% (67th percentile); dollar index +0.064% (59th) | Not large |
R1 = confirmation response (relief as uncertainty lifts); R2 = the outcome itself (pricing what the new Congress will decide). The criteria were not revised after seeing the results. T8 percentiles compare 81 windows of 35 minutes from 16:00~06:00 that night.
Reading · Under the reading rules written in advance, T1 and T2 lean toward the confirmation response; T3 leans toward the outcome itself. We cannot describe the day only as “confirmation response / broad relief”: one observation points toward “the outcome itself — AI infrastructure concerns.” T4 is not counted because the authoritative record (C3) is “insufficient.” The 11/2 estimate was within range and in the same direction, but that day’s sharp oil decline may have moved defense stocks and yields in the same direction (Section 04).
The shape of the night — from 06:00 on 11/4
Nasdaq 100 futures made two large moves in one day. They fell to −2.37% at 12:08 (from 06:00 on 11/4), then returned to −0.34% by the Korean close. From +0.41% just before the U.S. open, they rose to +2.33% at 00:15, then fell 1.31% from that high to finish at +0.99% (06:00). S&P500 futures finished at +1.65%. The KOSPI’s rebound from its low on the afternoon of 11/4 (#36) thus continued into the overnight U.S. session. Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 4.70 percentage points from the 12:08 low to the 00:15 high. Bitcoin bottomed at −2.77% at 12:08, in the same minute as the Nasdaq 100, and was +2.93% at 06:00.
% from 11/4 06:00 KST (around the 11/3 U.S. close) · 5-minute bars · Gray bands = market hours · Numbers = events below (values are Nasdaq 100 futures)
- ①12:08 shared low −2.37%
- ②13:35 AP Senate call −2.26%
- ③15:30 KOSPI close −0.34%
- ④22:30 refunding +0.40%
- ⑤23:30 U.S. open +0.41%
- ⑥00:15 post-open high +2.33%
- ⑦06:00 U.S. close +0.99%
- ⑧09:00 KOSPI open +0.82%
Source data
| Time | Nasdaq 100 | S&P500 | Russell 2000 | 10-year Treasury futures | Dollar index | Gold | Bitcoin | USD/KRW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:08 shared low | −2.37% | −1.38% | −1.02% | +0.40% | −0.56% | +0.29% | −2.77% | −0.46% |
| 13:35 AP Senate call | −2.26% | −1.33% | −0.87% | +0.41% | −0.57% | +0.47% | −1.62% | −0.47% |
| 15:30 KOSPI close | −0.34% | −0.29% | +0.08% | +0.13% | −0.32% | +2.37% | +0.09% | −0.23% |
| 22:30 refunding | +0.40% | +0.98% | +1.68% | +0.22% | −0.58% | +3.01% | +0.76% | −0.43% |
| 23:30 U.S. open | +0.41% | +1.19% | +1.64% | +0.19% | −0.51% | +2.86% | +0.56% | −0.40% |
| 00:15 post-open high | +2.33% | +1.87% | +1.22% | +0.01% | −0.37% | +2.84% | +3.84% | −0.27% |
| 06:00 U.S. close | +0.99% | +1.65% | +1.44% | +0.40% | −0.35% | +3.62% | +2.93% | −0.24% |
| 09:00 KOSPI open | +0.82% | +1.70% | +1.55% | +0.44% | — | +3.66% | +3.42% | −0.24% |
Reading · As Nasdaq 100 futures retreated from the 00:15 high, the semiconductor ETF fell from +0.33% at 23:40 to −3.53% at 01:00 (5-minute bars, from the 11/3 close). From peak to close, Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.34 percentage points and S&P500 futures lost 0.22 percentage points (11/4 06:00 basis).
11/4 06:00 → 10:30 KST change (%) · 5-minute bars · Each panel has a different vertical scale
Source data
| Daytime low (time) | End value | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | −0.07%(09:38) | +4.84% |
| Bitcoin | −2.77%(12:08) | +3.34% |
| USD/KRW | −0.61%(11:48) | −0.24% |
| 10-year Treasury futures | −0.09%(08:14) | +0.59% |
Gold rose from +0.47% around AP’s Senate majority call at 13:35 to +2.37% at 15:30. Over the same period, the dollar index recovered from −0.57% to −0.32%, so dollar weakness alone cannot explain the rise. Why it rose at that time remains unknown (Q-C).
What overlapped that day
The sequence of U.S. morning releases (Korean night) did not move yields or the dollar much. The move in 10-year Treasury futures during the Treasury refunding window (22:25~23:00) ranked at the 67th percentile among that night’s windows (T8). The largest moves came at the open (23:30) and in the following 15 minutes, rather than at the releases.
That day’s releases and the surrounding 35 minutes
| KST · event | Details | Nasdaq 100 | 10-year Treasury futures | Dollar index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:15 ADP private payrolls (October)08:15 ET | +86 thousand jobs; Reuters consensus 69 thousand Sources | +0.19% | +0.03% | +0.03% |
| 22:30 Treasury quarterly refunding08:30 ET | November auctions: $125 billion (3-year 58 billion; 10-year 42 billion; 30-year 25 billion); about 28 billion in new cash; “at least” removed from guidance Sources | +0.17% | +0.06% | +0.06% |
| 23:30 U.S. regular-session open09:30 ET | Four AI power and equipment stocks averaged −9.15% in the first 5-minute bar | +1.23% | −0.06% | +0.07% |
| 23:45 S&P Global Services PMI (October final)09:45 ET | 56.1; preliminary 57.9 Sources | +1.16% | −0.20% | +0.14% |
| 00:00 ISM Services (October)10:00 ET | 54.5; forecast 54.8; September 54.9; prices index 73.0 Sources | +0.20% | −0.16% | +0.12% |
| 00:30 EIA weekly crude inventories10:30 ET | −865 thousand barrels; forecast +877 thousand Sources | −0.59% | +0.26% | −0.03% |
| 06:00 U.S. regular-session close16:00 ET | After close: Snap Q3 results (16:10 ET) Sources | +0.33% | +0.00% | +0.01% |
Figures = change from 5 minutes before to 30 minutes after the event (recomputed from the same frozen data). When 10-year Treasury futures rise, yields fall. These are changes within the same window, not evidence of cause.
News linked to the election results (reported)
- Texas governor-elect · Gina Hinojosa has called for an immediate halt to new data-center construction and an end to tax incentives Sources
- Broker view · KeyBanc downgraded Vistra by one notch that day, citing the Texas result Sources
- Reported explanation for oil · Bloomberg cited hopes of an earlier end to the Iran war, alongside the vice president’s post on X and remarks by the Senate Democratic leader Sources
- Local data-center measures · Reason’s provisional tally found that most of roughly 41 measures across 10 states ended against data centers, with two exceptions in Ohio and one in North Dakota. An official tally has not yet been found Sources
News outside the election (reported)
- Iran · The president told the FT he had no immediate plans to escalate in the Middle East (same article) Sources
- Crude spot prices · Flows through the Strait of Hormuz were near prewar levels, leaving spot prices already weak (same article) Sources
- Refunding language · The size matched expectations; removal of “at least” was read as room to change auction sizes in the first half of next year (Reuters) Sources
These are the explanations in the reports. Boboo from Sky has not established the causes.
Reading · News affecting AI power and equipment—the Texas governor-elect’s demands and the broker downgrade—was available before the open. Intraday, oil slid from −2.38% to −7.42% between 00:30~02:00 KST (5-minute bars, from the 11/3 settlement). Election-related news and news outside the election shared the same day.
The first hour of the KOSPI
The KOSPI opened at 5,580.09 (−1.82%). The afternoon rebound on 11/4 continued into the overnight U.S. session (Section 03), but the KOSPI did not carry it forward. Nasdaq 100 futures rose +1.17% from 15:29 on 11/4 to 09:00 on 11/5. Applying the daytime amplification on 11/4 (5-minute β of 1.4~2.3) gives a gap band of +1.64%~+2.69%. The actual gap was outside it, in the opposite direction (T7 ①). At 10:00, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix averaged −6.85%, a −3.02pp gap from the index (−3.83%): the two companies were weaker than the index (T7 ②). USD/KRW was 1,338.3 won at 10:00, below 1,340 won (T7 ③). Foreign investors’ net selling was 730.6 billion won around 09:53 (Joongang Economy News) (T7 ④). KOSPI 200 overnight futures closed −1.66% from the 11/4 regular-session close, 0.16 percentage points from the opening gap (−1.82%) (T7 ⑤, reported). Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were down in the 4% range in Nextrade premarket trading (reported). Observation continued through 10:30. At the last available 1-minute bar (10:13), the KOSPI was 5,457.89 (−3.97%). At the same comparison time (10:00), the Nikkei 225 was +0.27% from the previous close: weakness was concentrated in Korea, not all of Asia. The Nikkei 225 subsequently fell to −0.84% at 10:19. Taiwan’s TAIEX, which opened at 10:00, was −2.07% at 10:14.
KOSPI = % from 11/4 close · Nasdaq 100 futures = % from 11/4 15:29 · 1-minute bars · Band = Nasdaq 100 change after 15:29 × 1.4~2.3
Source data
| Time | KOSPI | Nasdaq 100 futures (from 15:29) |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | −1.83% | +1.12% |
| 09:10 | −1.94% | +1.23% |
| 09:20 | −2.52% | +1.15% |
| 09:30 | −2.63% | +1.18% |
| 09:40 | −3.42% | +1.13% |
| 09:50 | −3.25% | +1.13% |
| 10:00 | −3.77% | +0.89% |
| 10:10 | −3.55% | +0.70% |
In the 2022 midterms, the KOSPI rose +1.06% during the count and fell −0.91% in the next session. This is one precedent.
Assets kept moving through the morning. From 06:00 to around 10:30, gold gained +1.17%, Bitcoin +0.40%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell −1.07%, USD/KRW was +0.00%, and the dollar index fell −0.20%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped from +0.55% at 10:00 to −0.09% at 10:20 (from 06:00 on 11/4), giving back almost all their overnight gain. Gold rose further over the same interval, from +4.26% to +4.84% on the same basis. Still, the largest moves were within equities, between sectors.
Nexon and Sony were not the only gainers. Around 10:00, all 6 Tokyo gaming and content stocks were up: Konami +11.46%, Capcom +8.80%, Bandai Namco +8.27%, Sony +8.21%, Nexon +7.06% and Nintendo +6.32%. Semiconductor equipment fell sharply at the same time: Tokyo Electron −7.76% and Advantest −9.40%, while the Nikkei 225 was +0.27%. Seoul showed the same pattern. Samsung Electronics fell −5.96%, SK hynix −7.74% and the KOSPI −3.83%, while all 8 entertainment, gaming and platform stocks rose (SM Entertainment +12.43%, HYBE +8.33%, Kakao +7.56%, YG +5.48%, NCSoft +5.13%, NAVER +4.86%, JYP +4.63% and Netmarble +4.24%). Reports said advancers outnumbered decliners early in the session (Top Star News, 09:09), and auto and financial stocks were also strong (Mediapen, 09:32). In the first U.S. session overnight, Roblox rose +8.49%, Take-Two +7.13%, Netflix +4.68% and Disney +4.18%, while the semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell −2.75% (Section 01). The U.S. night’s split carried into the Asian morning as “semiconductors down, games and content up.”
U.S. = 11/3 → 11/4 close · Tokyo / Seoul = previous close → end of the first hour on 11/5 · %
First U.S. session — 11/3 → 11/4 close
Tokyo — 11/4 close → 11/5 10:00
Seoul — 11/4 close → 11/5 10:00
Source data
| Stock | Market | Basis | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roblox RBLX | US | 11/4 close | +8.49% |
| Take-Two TTWO | US | 11/4 close | +7.13% |
| Netflix NFLX | US | 11/4 close | +4.68% |
| Disney DIS | US | 11/4 close | +4.18% |
| Konami 9766.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +11.46% |
| Capcom 9697.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +8.80% |
| Bandai Namco 7832.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +8.27% |
| Sony 6758.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +8.21% |
| Nexon 3659.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +7.06% |
| Nintendo 7974.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | +6.32% |
| Nikkei 225 ^N225 | Tokyo | 10:00 | +0.27% |
| Tokyo Electron 8035.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | −7.76% |
| Advantest 6857.T | Tokyo | 10:00 | −9.40% |
| SM Entertainment 041510.KQ | Seoul | 10:00 | +12.43% |
| HYBE 352820.KS | Seoul | 10:00 | +8.33% |
| Kakao 035720.KS | Seoul | 10:00 | +7.56% |
| YG 122870.KQ | Seoul | 10:00 | +5.48% |
| NCSoft 036570.KS | Seoul | 10:00 | +5.13% |
| NAVER 035420.KS | Seoul | 10:00 | +4.86% |
| JYP 035900.KQ | Seoul | 10:00 | +4.63% |
| Netmarble 251270.KS | Seoul | 10:00 | +4.24% |
Tokyo and Seoul give different answers on whether this is an election-led “trend reversal.” In Tokyo it is a familiar seesaw. Over the past 20 trading days (10/6~11/4), the average of Tokyo Electron and Advantest fell by more than 2% on 7 days; on 6 of those days, the average of the 6 gaming and content stocks rose. Konami raised its annual profit forecast alongside its first-half results on 10/29. The next day (10/30), Konami gained +15.02% and Tokyo Electron fell −5.19%. Today that seesaw tipped further. Seoul is different. On the same basis, over the past 20 trading days (10/7~11/4), the average of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix fell by more than 2% on 9 days; the average of the 8 entertainment, gaming and platform stocks rose on only 2 of them. They usually fell together (10/30: SK hynix −7.08%, SM Entertainment −3.05%, NAVER −1.49%). This morning’s Seoul pattern was rare over the past month. Individual stocks also have their own schedules. HYBE (11/4: −11.48%) and SM Entertainment (11/4: −7.21%) were also rebounding the day after steep declines. Krafton disclosed that its board approved a roughly KRW 300 billion share buyback and full cancellation on 11/3. Nintendo releases first-half results today (11/5; Nintendo IR calendar). This is only one morning; today’s close and the next few days will distinguish a lasting change.
Reading · The first hour is the start of the response, not its end. The first close reflecting the U.S. response is today at 15:30.
What to watch next
- KOSPI — first close reflecting the U.S. response (to be recorded in the live log)
- U.S. October jobs
- Congress returns; Senate procedural vote on data-center transmission costs bill (scheduled)
- U.S. October consumer prices
- NVIDIA Q3 earnings (after the U.S. close on 11/17)
Show 12 more upcoming events
- 3-year auction: $58 billion (first refunding auction)
- End of live “1 week after the result” observations
- U.S. October producer prices
- 10-year auction: $42 billion
- 30-year auction: $25 billion
- Regional grid operators’ deadline to respond to FERC on large-load interconnections
- U.S. Treasury TIC (September)
- Alaska ranked-choice tabulation (11/18 U.S.)
- PJM 2029/30 capacity auction bids (cap: $337.83 per MW-day)
- Federal Reserve FOMC statement
- Stopgap funding expires
- New Congress — falls on a Sunday, so the actual date may change
Lame-duck calendar — both chambers return 11/9; House through 12/17U.S. dates
- Stopgap funding · The continuing resolution (H.R. 6500), signed on 9/2, runs through 12/11. Some analysis sees a second stopgap carrying funding into 2027 as a realistic option; a partial shutdown remains possible Sources Sources
- National Defense Authorization Act (FY2027) · Passed the House (7/22), but not the Senate. The House bill includes a provision (Section 1848) barring defense procurement of semiconductors made with Chinese silicon-carbide wafers Sources Sources Sources
- Data-center transmission costs bill (S.5653) · This bipartisan bill would require data centers of 20MW or more to pay all related transmission costs. Separately, the ratepayer protection bill (H.R. 9340) passed the House 417 to 3; the Senate procedural vote was 57 to 43, short of the 60 votes needed Sources Sources Sources
- Enhanced ACA premium tax credits · The extension passed only the House. Average benchmark premiums for 2027 rise about 13% (KFF) Sources Sources
- Debt ceiling ($41.1 trillion) · NTU estimate. The Senate majority leader was reported as saying it could be raised in the lame-duck session Sources
- Iran war supplemental funding · The $87.6 billion requested on 6/24 (including $67.15 billion for defense) has not been enacted Sources
Boboo from Sky does not predict which items will pass. What the results changed is the friction this list faces in 2027.
The ribbon matters because it was tied in advance. The next watermarks—the 11/5 KOSPI close, 11/6 jobs report and 11/9 return of Congress—will go on the same gauge. Boboo does not say whether the distance is good or bad.