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US midterms live has ended · Final results as of 11:35 KST Nov 5 →

BOBOO FROM SKY · 11/3–11/12

US midterms · The count and the markets

The timetable, trading prices and the Seoul session in one place.

Archive · Refresh for the latest screen

USD/JPY is at 157.96 JPY, −0.48% from 06:00 KST on Nov 4 (as of 11:29 KST). Next up: the US October jobs report at 22:30 KST on Nov 6.

Boboo · Nov 4 21:29 ET (11/5 11:29 KST) · claude-opus-5-5 · automatically written · numbers checked

Key moments

Briefing

Little change since the last briefing

  • Per AP, Democrats (D) won control of the Senate at 13:35 KST and the House at 15:27 KST on Nov 4.
  • At 17:29 ET (07:29 KST), the 'D House · D Senate' contract traded at 99.9 cents, a change of 0 cents since the last briefing.

claude-opus-5-5 · Automatically written · numbers checked against data · may not have been read by a person

Since the previous briefing · Kalshi prices (cents)
  • D House · D Senate99.90 cents
  • D House · R Senate0.10 cents
  • R House · R Senate0.10 cents
  • R House · D Senate0.10 cents
  • House D-majority contract99.90 cents
  • Senate D-majority contract99.90 cents
Data updated
Next

US October jobs report

Kalshi · Markets · Korea · Briefing ·

Kalshi is collected every 30 seconds during the count window and every five minutes otherwise.

Delayed feeds: Dollar index · S&P 500 futures · Gold futures · KOSDAQ · KOSPI · Nasdaq 100 futures · Russell 2000 futures · Samsung Electronics · SK hynix · VIX · US 10y Treasury futures

Rates, currencies and other markets

Changes use Nov 3 closes: 16:00 ET for cash, FX and crypto; 17:00 ET for futures; 15:30 KST for Korea. Changes remain blank before the baseline. Cash yields and Treasury futures prices are labeled separately. Lines show observed prices; each plot has its own vertical scale.

US 10y Treasury futures

107.14 points

+0.68%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:26 ET (11/5 11:26 KST)

US 10y yield (cash)

4.89%

Baseline unavailable

Last session

Nov 4 15:00 ET (11/5 05:00 KST)

Dollar index

101.32 points

−0.54%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:26 ET (11/5 11:26 KST)

USD/KRW

1,343.72 KRW

−0.03%

Trading

Nov 4 21:35 ET (11/5 11:35 KST)

USD/JPY

157.91 JPY

−0.51%

Trading

Nov 4 21:35 ET (11/5 11:35 KST)

Gold futures

4,135.4 USD

+4.96%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:26 ET (11/5 11:26 KST)

Bitcoin

80,511.74 USD

+3.42%

Trading

Nov 4 21:35 ET (11/5 11:35 KST)

Ethereum

2,423.79 USD

+5.87%

Trading

Nov 4 21:35 ET (11/5 11:35 KST)

Seoul session

Changes use Nov 3 closes: 16:00 ET for cash, FX and crypto; 17:00 ET for futures; 15:30 KST for Korea. Changes remain blank before the baseline. Cash yields and Treasury futures prices are labeled separately. Lines show observed prices; each plot has its own vertical scale.

KOSPI

5,480.4 points

−2.98%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:15 ET (11/5 11:15 KST)

KOSDAQ

688.61 points

−2.24%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:15 ET (11/5 11:15 KST)

Samsung Electronics

206,000 KRW

−6.15%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:16 ET (11/5 11:16 KST)

SK hynix

1,304,000 KRW

−6.72%

Delayed · Trading

Nov 4 21:16 ET (11/5 11:16 KST)

No verified ex-two-company index or foreign-flow feed

Outcome and earlier prices · provisional, not preregistered

Awaiting a verified election-lens round that agrees with the AP ledger. Missing values are not estimated.

The week after

Daily observations versus Nov 3. Cash, FX and crypto use 16:00 ET, futures 17:00 ET, and Korea 15:30 KST completed bars. VIX and VIX9D show levels. Missing cells are not filled from previous days.

Daily moves · percent or bp; volatility in levels
Asset11/0311/0411/05
S&P 500 futures+0.02%+1.67%—
Nasdaq 100 futures+0%+0.81%—
Russell 2000 futures+0.01%+1.78%—
US 10y Treasury futures0%+0.44%—
US 10y yield (cash)———
Dollar index−0%−0.35%—
USD/KRW0%−0.24%—
USD/JPY0%−0.18%—
Gold futures+0.01%+3.36%—
Bitcoin−0.1%+2.83%—
Ethereum−0.07%+5.65%—
KOSPI———
KOSDAQ———
Samsung Electronics———
SK hynix———
VIX20.7416.78—
VIX9D21.8215.54—

Policy contract prices (cents)

  • Shutdown contract · 23 cents
  • Defense authorization contract · 82 cents
  • Ratepayer protection contract · 15 cents
  • Health-subsidy extension contract · 31 cents

Ex-two-company index and foreign flows: verified feeds unavailable. Remaining races are linked below to the AP ledger and state results.

Other events that week

  • Nov 3 03:30 ET (11/3 17:30 KST) · Edition #35 · The price tag on the eve
  • Nov 3 06:00 ET (11/3 20:00 KST) · Voting begins in the Eastern time zone
  • Nov 3 18:00 ET (11/4 08:00 KST) · First polls close: eastern Indiana and Kentucky
  • Nov 3 19:00 ET (11/4 09:00 KST) · Polls close: South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and others
  • Nov 3 19:00 ET (11/4 09:00 KST) · Seoul regular session opens
  • Nov 3 19:30 ET (11/4 09:30 KST) · Polls close: Ohio (special), North Carolina and West Virginia
  • Nov 3 20:00 ET (11/4 10:00 KST) · First closings in Texas, Michigan and Kansas; Maine, Pennsylvania and others
  • Nov 3 20:30 ET (11/4 10:30 KST) · Polls close: Arkansas
  • Nov 3 21:00 ET (11/4 11:00 KST) · Polls close: Iowa, Nebraska, and the rest of Texas, Michigan and Kansas
  • Nov 3 22:00 ET (11/4 12:00 KST) · Polls close: Nevada, Montana, Utah and others
  • Nov 3 23:00 ET (11/4 13:00 KST) · Polls close: California, Oregon, Washington and others
  • Nov 4 00:00 ET (11/4 14:00 KST) · Polls close: most of Alaska and Hawaii
  • Nov 4 01:00 ET (11/4 15:00 KST) · Last polls close: western Aleutians, Alaska
  • Nov 4 01:30 ET (11/4 15:30 KST) · Seoul regular session closes
  • Nov 4 05:00 ET (11/4 19:00 KST) · Edition #36 · The count day
  • Nov 4 08:30 ET (11/4 22:30 KST) · US Treasury quarterly refunding
  • Nov 4 20:46 ET (11/5 10:46 KST) · Edition #37 · The first US session after the results (blog 11:30)
  • Nov 6 08:30 ET (11/6 22:30 KST) · US October jobs report
  • Nov 10 08:30 ET (11/10 22:30 KST) · US October CPI
  • Nov 12 04:00 ET (11/12 18:00 KST) · Live observation ends; archive remains

Observation archive

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